Is there a safe passage? - Dawn

IN 1933, Hitler was nominated the chancellor of Germany by President Hindenberg. But before he could take office he was required to get his appointment approved by a new Reichstag (parliament).Afraid that his Nazi party would not win an absolute majority in the elections, Hitler decided to create a situation which would necessitate the imposition of an emergency. He engineered the burning of the Reichstag. Following this he got the president to issue an emergency decree for the ‘Protection of the people and the state’, which enabled him to suspend fundamental rights and imprison anyone without trial.The Reichstag elections were held in November 1933 in which the Nazi party got 43.9 per cent of the votes, not an absolute majority. Therefore, in order to free himself of any parliamentary restraint, he sought the passage of the ‘Enabling Act’, which would give him the power to make laws without the approval of the Reichstag.Since the Act deviated from the constitution, it needed a two-thirds majority to be adopted. Using subterfuge, intimidation and violence, he managed to get the Act passed by 444 votes to 94.He thus became a legal dictator and promptly brought all political and social institutions, including the press and the courts, under his control. But he made sure that the privileged position of the army was secured.Seventy-four years later Hitler’s extremist political credo is being replicated in Pakistan. In 1999, people had welcomed the Musharraf coup. Many thought that the saviour had finally arrived. They had great expectations for their country’s and their own future. Yet on Mar 9, their hopes came crashing down as he showed his true colours.He should have learned from China, Malaysia and South Korea. In a short span of time, these countries have managed to develop and are now knocking at the door of the First World.He would then have known why the common refrain in China today is that “we have fallen in love with our future”; why Malaysia, with a population of 25 million, is generating revenue from exports in excess of $100bn, against Pakistan’s $16-18bn with 160 million people; and why South Korea has become an industrial giant despite decades of military rule.Pakistan, on the other hand, sixty years on, is in a state of anarchy, with people here and abroad calling it a failed state, with justification too. The question is why did Musharraf fail when he had everything going for him. Judging by a few of the many decisions made by him, the only conclusion that one can draw is that he lacks sound judgment.This was first demonstrated in Kargil. He thought that by seizing the heights he would force the Indians to vacate Siachen and to negotiate on Kashmir from a position of weakness — on the contrary, they surprised him by going on to recapture the heights one by one, and also by mobilising their armed forces. He had brought the country to the brink of war.Musharraf’s failure to take timely action to resolve the crises that were building up in Balochistan, the tribal areas, Lal Masjid and Swat through political, not military means, led to the loss of thousands of lives; by sending the army to crush its own people, he has put the country’s integrity in jeopardy, and turned the army into an object of derision. The fact that the paramilitaries have surrendered in droves, in much the same way as a battalion of the Baloch Regiment had done in Waziristan should open his eyes.He thought that by intimidating the Chief Justice he would force him to resign; he was surprised. He then filed a reference; he was surprised again.Knowing that the Karachi rally would lead to clashes and deaths, he still sanctioned it. Since he knows that once out of power, he would be forced to go into exile as the Al Qaeda and Taliban have marked him as their prime target, he imposed de facto martial law, in the process, showed the world that he places his own interests above those of his country.Therefore, his first imperative is to stay in office for another term. But he may not survive as president for long if the PPP (assuming that they have actually turned against him) or the PML-N is returned to power, either on their own or in coalition. If this happens, they just might decide to invoke Article 6 of the constitution and also implicate his collaborators in PML-Q (who can be termed Quislings).Apart from this, they might also energise the corruption charges against the PML-Q members, held in abeyance by Musharraf to keep them in line, and frame new charges too. Therefore, his second imperative is to ensure the return of his party to power. And since this can only be done by manipulating the votes, his third imperative is to put into place a compliant army command, election commission, judiciary and caretaker administration.Yet, his scheme of manoeuvre could run into difficulties if the constitution is restored. Therefore, his fourth imperative is to hold elections under martial law.But his scheme could fail if the political parties get their act together and spearhead the movement launched by the lawyers, journalists and civil society. If the movement reaches a crescendo before the elections, it could force a rethink on his western and local sponsors about the wisdom of supporting a person who has become a liability.One of Hitler’s cronies had thundered that “the government will brutally beat down everyone who opposes it. We do not say an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth; no, he who knocks out one of our eyes will get his head cut off, and he who knocks out one of our teeth will get his jaw smashed in.”From the stage at the carnival in Islamabad, while the dead and the dying were lying in the streets of Karachi, the president had thundered in similar style.While the dissenters were “brutally beaten down”, they continue to resist. The courage, honour and sacrifice of people like Asma Jehangir, Aitzaz Ahsan, Munir Malik, Ali Ahmad Kurd, Tariq Mahmood, Chief Justice Iftikhar Choudhry and his colleagues, and Imran Khan, have not only turned them into national heroes, but also inspired the tormented people of Pakistan to rise from their slumber. He will be surprised yet again.Like Field Marshal Paulus and his 6th German Army at Stalingrad, he has been encircled. But unlike Paulus, a safe passage may yet be made available to him.